For a couple of years now, political news in the UK and really around the European Union has been dominated by the fact that the UK will soon vote on whether or not to remain part of the EU. The idea of a British exit from the union has been referred to as the “Brexit,” and the country has repeatedly delayed the coming referendum to determine whether or not it will become a reality.
Many issues are at the heart of the Brexit debate, which has been raging with increasing intensity with each passing month. Immigration, national security, and trade interests tend to be among the hottest topics, with pro-Brexit people arguing that a more independent UK could address such things more effectively and anti-Brexit folks suggesting that membership in the EU is vital for all three. And despite ongoing input from economists, politicians, and other experts on the topics at hand, the debate has remained firmly stalemated for some time now. And evidently it has begun to spread to other countries. According to this report nearly half of voters in each of eight major EU countries now want their own referendums on EU membership.
But where do things actually stand with the debate in the UK? The answer to this question changes and grows more complex by the week, but for now we appear to finally be heading toward the actual referendum. As noted here in an extensive chronological recap of Brexit-related events up to this point, the whole thing faced yet another delay recently, this time because a group of expats took action in the courts attempting to push the referendum back until they could get their voting rights reinstated. Typically British expats are excluded from voting if they’ve lived outside of the UK for 15 years or more, but apparently more than four million people in just such a situation are eager to have input on the Brexit vote.
For now, however, the referendum has been scheduled for June 23 of this year, which means this whole years-long debate may finally come to a close. But as for forecasting what the outcome will be, it’s still anybody’s guess.
For his part, Prime Minister David Cameron is still advocating strongly for the country remaining in the EU. Most recently, in comments made just earlier this week, Cameron again made the argument that a Brexit could threaten peace in Europe. It’s not the first time he’s made this argument, and aside from the spectre of economic instability based in restructured trade agreements in the event of a Brexit, it seems to be his hardest-hitting line of attack. However, there still appears to be a roughly equal portion of the population who don’t want to hear it, and who have grown distrustful of the EU.
But “roughly equal” should be stressed, because pollsters essentially have no idea what’s going on just over a month from the scheduled referendum. This analysis showed some very tight positions between those in favour of and those against the Brexit, and it cited polling experts who predicted that the numbers now will likely prove to be inaccurate. In other words, we just don’t know which side is leading the way at this moment, despite the debate having been drawn out for so long.
All that being said, we’ll hopefully have an answer in six weeks’ time.