There’s a long history of clubs that are top of the Premier League at Christmas going on to be there or thereabouts in the title shake-up come May.
That could be good news for Liverpool, who after 16 rounds of games during the 2023/24 season find themselves at the summit of the table.
So are the Reds champions-elect or in a false position? Let’s take a deep dive into the key statistics…
The League Table Never Lies
There are those who believe the only stat that matters in football is the ‘points for’ column of the league table – it’s true that no trophies are given to teams that play well and finish second.
Even so, the Premier League winner odds make Manchester City the 5/6 favourite, with Liverpool (3/1) and Arsenal (7/2) considered somewhat less likely to lift the trophy.
For the first time this season @LFC end the day top of the Premier League table! 🔴 pic.twitter.com/3z5dfCYTxw
— Premier League (@premierleague) December 9, 2023
You may consider that to be a surprise, given that Liverpool top the table after 16 games having lost just one of their outings so far – City, meanwhile, have dropped points in 6/16, which is unlike them and also not exactly title-winning form.
There’s still time for them to turn it around, but you’d certainly rather be in Liverpool’s shoes – four points clear of City.
Goalscoring and Chance Creation
If you’re going to win the Premier League, you need to be creating chances and taking enough of them to get up to that 90-point mark… and probably even higher, given what we’ve seen in the past few seasons.
The good news for Liverpool fans is that their heroes are very good at fashioning clear goalscoring opportunities – at the time of writing, the Reds lead the way in the Premier League for xG created, with City in third and Arsenal down the rankings in fifth place.
The Reds have fired in more shots at goal than any other EPL side too – although their on-target ratio of 32.6% is pretty mediocre, putting them down the pack in 12th place ahead of Arsenal (13th) but trailing City (2nd).
To top it off, Liverpool top the charts as far as Big Chances Created and Big Chances Missed are concerned – a pair of stats that giveth with one hand and taketh with the other.
But whichever way you spin it, the attacking play of Jurgen Klopp’s side is certainly good enough to win the Premier League this term.
Defensive Stability
A side can win the EPL title courtesy of their goalscoring exploits, but they need to be able to defend well enough to accumulate points even when not playing at their best.
Could this be an area of weakness for Liverpool? Perhaps, although their goals conceded per game ratio of 0.9 is tied with Arsenal for the best in the Premier League.
There may be an element of good fortune to that though, with the Reds only ranking third for xG yielded – behind City and Arsenal, it should be said.
80′ – Goal for Fulham. Bobby De Cordova-Reid.
🔴 [2-3] ⚪⚫#LIVFUL
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) December 3, 2023
And Liverpool’s first 16 games saw 61 shots on target at their goal – contrast that to the totals of Arsenal (37) and Man City (47).
Lies, damn lies and statistics. The numbers can be bent and shaped to make a case for any of the EPL’s current top three – you suspect there will be twists and turns a-plenty between now and the end of the campaign… many of which cannot be predicted by the data.