All of the headlines will be about Al Boum Photo as he looks to achieve a remarkable hat-trick. But the Cheltenham Gold Cup, such as it is, boasts far more stories amongst its high-class field than that one. A fascinating edition of the renewal on March 19 will have plenty of twists and turns as it plots its way around the famous New Course.
It will be Al Boum Photo, looking to become the first horse since the incomparable Best Mate to win three consecutive editions of the flagship race, that will go off as the favourite in the Gold Cup odds from Betfair, and his record in this renewal is such that his short price cannot be questioned.
However, for punters seeking value in the market, it could well be that a Merseyside racecourse, Haydock Park, provides a couple of key clues as to who to back and who to avoid in your Gold Cup bets.
French Resistance
While formidable players in National Hunt racing, the French haven’t had a huge amount of success in the Gold Cup. You have to go back to The Fellow, the winner in 1994, to find the last time that a fancy with Gallic connections crossed the line in first place.
While Royale Pagaille has a French name, he is actually owned by Susannah Ricci and trained by Venetia Williams on UK soil. So, the Francophile connection ends there.
Timeform’s Top Rated Novice Chasers:
(updated 08/02/2021)165P – Shishkin
164p – Monkfish
163p – Energumene
163p – Royale Pagaille
160P – Envoi Allen
154p – Galvin
154 – Sporting John
153p – Next Destination
152 – Captain Guinness
152 – Latest Exhibition
152 – Sky Pirate pic.twitter.com/zfJRZdslHv— Timeform (@Timeform) February 10, 2021
That said, the seven-year-old is highly fancied for a tilt at the Gold Cup. He has already been backed into 10/1 (at the time of writing) thanks to a handful of eye-catching showings – principally at Haydock.
The first of those came back in December at the Betfair Exchange Novices’ Chase. On the heaviest of ground, he outlasted a decent field that included the likes of Espoir De Romay and Redford Road to win by a very handy seven lengths.
And then, even more impressive, came a huge 16-length triumph in the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase, where he overcame being top weight and spectacularly trounced the field.
Notably, Royale Pagaille will need to step up in class once again to compete at Grade 1 level as a novice. In his last three starts, some decent horses have been unable to lay a glove on him. Could France finally have a Gold Cup winner to cheer?
Lost and Yet to Be Found
Haydock plays host to a catalogue of big races throughout the year, but few are as important as the Betfair Chase in identifying potential Gold Cup champions. The great Kauto Chase was a four-time Betfair Chase winner who went on to prevail in the Gold Cup twice. This is while reigning Chase champion Bristol de Mai was a very close third in the 2019 edition of the Cheltenham showpiece.
Lostintranslation rallies to win the Dipper at @CheltenhamRaces 👏
What a ride from @Robbie_Power_ pic.twitter.com/Jcl8gkkIOP
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) January 1, 2019
And so all eyes were on Merseyside once again back in November, and while Bristol de Mai showcased his customary staying power finely it was actually the misadventures of the favourite, Lostintranslation, that caught the eye for all the wrong reasons.
So startling was how the Colin Tizzard trained horse tailed away at Haydock his odds of winning the Gold Cup have slumped. From being one of the more fancied challengers to Al Boum Photo, he is now a 20/1 outsider.
While third in the Gold Cup in 2020, it would seem that such a below-par effort at Haydock Park – in contrast to Royale Pagaille’s excellence at the track – has left the writing on the wall for Lostintranslation ahead of another tilt at the Cheltenham Festival headliner.